El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

The U.S. government forecaster added that El Niño conditions developed over the past month.

El Niño is a phenomenon that occurs naturally when weakening trade winds cause warmer ocean waters to build up in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This typically leads to higher global temperatures and altered weather patterns, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall to others.

“El Niño is likely to have a negative impact on crop yields in Southeast Asia and India, where El Niño is typically associated with below-normal rainfall,” said Kyle Tapley, enterprise sales executive at Vaisala Xweather’s WeatherDesk.

The monsoon delivers nearly 70% of India’s rainfall and is vital for the agricultural sector, which accounts for about 18% of the nearly $4 trillion economy. Below-normal rainfall could mean smaller harvests of crops such as rice, cotton, and soybeans, while also weighing on winter crops.

Meanwhile, Indonesian rice farmers are racing to get ahead of the usual planting schedule as they battle the threat of a lengthy dry spell this year. Malaysia’s economic minister warned that El Niño could cause crop yields to fall by an average of between 8% and 10% this year.

“El Niño typically leads to a less-active U.S. hurricane season, and we expect a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. However, it is important to remember that a strong hurricane is still possible even in a less-active hurricane season,” Tapley said.

The U.S. hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through November 30.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Porter)