Following in the footsteps of groundhog Punxsutawney Phil, analysts from Fitch Ratings and Morningstar weighed in with these P/C insurance market forecasts in the past week:

• “Fitch Ratings expects the U.S. property/casualty market to continue softening in 2026, with increased competition, abundant capital and downward pricing pressure.
• “Despite the high number of litigations and escalating payouts, the U.S. casualty insurance market is still an attractive market because of its size, product and regional diversity, and pricing flexibility,” according to Morningstar.
• “We expect casualty insurance pricing to remain divergent from the rest of the P&C insurance market in the near term,” said Victor Adesanya, Morningstar’s Senior Vice President, Global Insurance & Pension Ratings.
• “Overall, we do not anticipate softening rates in the P/C market to pressure credit ratings, as most insurers benefit from diversification in their product mix and geographic footprint and can still increase their casualty insurance rates.”
• “Insurers will face slowing revenue growth given the easing rate environment amid macroeconomic uncertainty,” Fitch says.
• In property-catastrophe reinsurance, softening market conditions will “continue at the midyear 2026 renewals in April (Asia-focused) and June/July (Florida).”

Read what insurance executives are saying in the related article, “Insurance Groundhogs Warming Up to Market Changes.”