It looks like economic and insured losses were relatively benign in the first six months of 2018.
Global economic losses for natural disasters hit the $45 billion mark in the 2018 first half. Insured losses landed at just under half that figure, and insurers and reinsurers alike handled the pressure, Aon’s Impact Forecasting concluded in a new report.
Impact Forecasting said that the economic loss figure is 64 percent lower than the 10-year average of $124 billion, and nearly 50 percent lower than the 18-year average of $87 billion. It encompasses 156 natural disaster events, which were above the 18-year average of 142.
Similarly, insured losses over the first six months of 2018 reached $21 billion, a substantial number, but 40 percent lower than the 10-year average of $35 billion, and almost 20 percent lower than the 18-year average of $26 billion, according to the report.
Steve Bowen, Impact Forecasting director and meteorologist, pointed out that the first half of 2018 included a number of large disasters, of which at least 15 were billion-dollar economic loss events. But, he said, insurers and reinsurers could manage those losses. However, he cautioned that there are no guarantees the second half of 2018 will be as manageable.
“While first half losses were lower than average, it is imperative to reiterate that this does not automatically correlate to a quieter second half,” Bowen said in prepared remarks. “As last year proved on multiple occasions, even one singular event can completely change the trajectory of a year from a humanitarian and financial cost perspective.”
With that in mind, Bowen cautioned that “identifying and understanding your individual level of risk remains an important asset in helping to mitigate potential impacts given the prospect of future events.”
Impact Forecasting noted that the first half of 2018 included a number of smaller-scale disasters, with the most hitting Asia-Pacific, at 55. Europe, Middle East and Africa came in second with 44 events, followed by the United States at 37 and the Americas at 20.
Earlier in July, Munich Re released a report finding that natural disaster-related losses hit a 13-year low in the 2018 first half.
Source: Aon/Impact Forecasting