With third-quarter earnings reports for publicly traded companies slowing down to a trickle, and FEMA publishing an estimate of NFIP last Friday, Carrier Management has updated a company-by-company list of Hurricane Ian estimates.

The latest figures tally to $20.2 billion, excluding the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s estimate of $3.5 billion-$5.3 billion for the National Flood Insurance Program. Including a $4 billion estimates for NFIP, the total including NFIP Is just over $24 billion. (The midpoint of FEMA’s range is $4.4 billion, but a media statement indicates that the reinsurance program has a $4 billion trigger.)

With no figures available for large national mutual companies, such as State Farm, the largest estimates on our list are generally associated with reinsurers and Citizens. Excluding NFIP, the largest single estimate is Berkshire Hathaway’s $2.7 billion, which consists of $600 million for GEICO, $600 million for other primary operations, and $1.5 billion for the reinsurance operations.

Although Berkshire’s property/casualty reinsurance operations had the largest share of the total, reinsurance turned in a small profit for the conglomerate, while the GEICO and the rest of he primary operations reported combined ratios of roughly 108.

As of Nov. 18, Carrier Management’s running tally also includes a $2.650 billion figure for Lloyd’s, the average of a $2.3 billion-$3 billion range announced by Lloyd’s earlier in the day.

Hurricane Ian Loss Estimates By Carrier ($ Millions)

Date Company Net Reference article
11/15/2022 Citizens Property Insurance Corp. 2,400.0 Florida Citizens’ Revises Ian Loss Estimate to $3.8B, Including Litigation Expenses (insurancejournal.com)
10/12/2022 United Insurance Holdings Corp. 36.4 United Insurance Holdings Corp. Announces Estimated Losses From Hurricane Ian | Business Wire
10/13/2022 Heritage Insurance Holdings # 40.0 Heritage Provides Estimated Impact of Hurricane Ian – Oct 13, 2022 (heritagepci.com)
10/13/2022 Progressive Corp. 785.0 Progressive Loses A Bundle: Nearly $2.0B Gross Ian Losses; $760M Net (carriermanagement.com)
10/14/2022 RLI Corp.* 40.0 RLI Announces Hurricane Ian Loss Estimates | Business Wire
10/18/2022 Swiss Re 1,300.0 Swiss Re Expects Hurricane Ian Claims to Bring Q3 Loss (carriermanagement.com)
10/19/2022 Allstate 360.0 Allstate Sees Q3 Net Loss; Auto Reserve Boosts More Damaging Than Ian (carriermanagement.com)
10/19/2022 Arch Capital ** 545.0 Arch Capital Group Ltd. Announces Catastrophe Loss Estimates | Business Wire
10/19/2022 Everest Re 600.0 Everest Announces Preliminary Impact of Third Quarter 2022 Catastrophe Events | Business Wire
10/19/2022 RenaissanceRe 540.0 RenaissanceRe Announces Estimated Net Negative Impact on Third Quarter 2022 Results of Operations | Business Wire
10/19/2022 Travelers Corp. 326.0 Travelers Q3 Net Income Falls 31% (insurancejournal.com)
10/20/2022 AXIS Capital 160.0 AXIS Capital Comments on Impact of Catastrophe and Other Weather-Related Losses on Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results | Business Wire
10/20/2022 Cincinnati Financial 220.0 Cincinnati Financial Corporation Announces Preliminary Estimate for Third-Quarter Storm Losses (prnewswire.com)
10/20/2022 The Hanover 28.0 The Hanover Estimates Third Quarter Catastrophe Losses and Preliminary Results (prnewswire.com)
10/23/2022 Munich Re 1,600.0 Munich Re Estimates $1.6B Hit From Hurricane Ian Could Affect 2022 Targets (carriermanagement.com)
10/24/2022 W. R. Berkley ** 94.0 Berkley Cooling On Professional Lines, Firing Up Property Cat Re Engines (carriermanagement.com)
10/25/2022 Chubb 975.0 Chubb’s Q3 Numbers: Net Income Falls on Realized Losses; P/C Profits Up 15% (carriermanagement.com)
10/27/2022 The Hartford 214.0 Q3 Net Income Down 30% at The Hartford; $214M in Ian Losses (carriermanagement.com)
10/27/2022 Kinsale+ 26.0 Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | Kinsale Capital Group Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results
10/31/2022 CNA 87.0 CNA Records 50% Drop in Q3 Net Income (carriermanagement.com)
11/1/2022 AIG 450.0 AIG Reports Q3 Results With $450M in Losses From Ian (insurancejournal.com)
11/1/2022 James River 5.0 James River Announces Third Quarter 2022 Results (globenewswire.com)
11/1/2022 Markel 70.0 Markel Q3 Income Drops on Investments but Insurance ‘Solidly Profitable’ (carriermanagement.com)
11/2/2022 American Financial Group 39.0 American Financial Group, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Results and Declares Special Dividend | Business Wire
11/2/2022 AXA 414.0 2022-11-02 – AXA – Press release – 9M22 Activity Indicators (axa-contento-118412.eu)
11/2/2022 Greenlight Re 19.5 Press Release Earnings 2022 Q3 (greenlightre.com)
11/2/2022 Hiscox Ltd 135.0 Q3 2022 trading statement | Hiscox Group
11/2/2022 Kemper** 27.0 Kemper Reports Third Quarter 2022 Operating Results | Business Wire
11/2/2022 Selective 10.0 Selective Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results, Including Net Income of $0.66 per Diluted Common Share and Non-GAAP Operating Income(1) of $0.99 per Diluted Common Share (prnewswire.com)
11/2/2022 SiriusPoint 80.1 SiriusPoint Ltd. – SiriusPoint reports year-over-year improvement of underwriting results and simplifies operating platform (siriuspt.com)
11/3/2022 Fairfax Financial Holdings 560.0 Fairfax – Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited: Financial Results for the Third Quarter
11/3/2022 Lancashire Insurance* 175.0 Results, Reports & Presentations (lancashiregroup.com)
11/3/2022 Liberty Mutual 835.0 q3-2022-earnings-release1.pdf (libertymutualgroup.com)
11/5/2022 Berkshire Hathaway 2,700.0 Berkshire Hathaway Reports $2.7B Loss in Third Quarter (carriermanagement.com)
11/6/2022 Hannover Re 286.0 Hannover Re Quarterly Statement 09/30/2022
11/7/2022 Argo Group 4.2 Argo Group Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results | Business Wire
11/7/2022 White Mountains 51.0 WHITE MOUNTAINS REPORTS THIRD QUARTER RESULTS (prnewswire.com)
11/8/2022 Lemonade 2.2 Lemonade 10Q SEC Filing
11/9/2022 Kin 2.5 Kin Insurance Maintains Steady Year-Over-Year Growth in Third Quarter, Increasing 151% Year-to-Date | Kin Insurance
11/9/2022 PartnerRe 300.0 PartnerRe Ltd. Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results – PartnerRe
11/9/2022 SCOR 289.0 First nine months 2022 results | SCOR
11/9/2022 Zurich 550.0 Zurich Insurance Expects $550M Hit From Hurricane Ian, but On Track to Beat Targets (insurancejournal.com)
11/10/2022 Hippo 4.7 Hippo-Shareholders-2022-Q3-v8[47].pdf (q4cdn.com)
11/11/2022 Beazley plc 120.0 REG – Beazley PLC -Trading statement (investis.com)
11/18/2022 Lloyd’s 2,650.0 Lloyd’s Ian Claims More Than $2B (carriermanagement.com)
as of 11/13/2022 Total Incl NFIP 20,155.6
11/10/2022 NFIP* 4,000.0 FEMA Projects $3.5-$5.3B NFIP Losses for Hurricane Ian
as of 11/13/2022 Total Incl NFIP 24,155.6

* Range of net losses provided by company; CM used the midpoint

** Includes catastrophes other than Ian

+ Approximate: Estimated based on loss ratio points and earned premium

Note: Loss figure of $2.4 billion used for Citizens is net of reinsurance (updated 11/15/2022 based on new $3.8 billion direct loss estimate. Related article Florida Citizens’ Revises Ian Loss Estimate to $3.8B, Including Litigation Expenses (insurancejournal.com)

In aggregate, the tally as of mid-November still falls far below industrywide estimates of Hurricane Ian losses put out by modeling firms and rating agencies in the days following Ian’s landfall, which average to around $55 billion.

Hurricane Ian Industrywide Loss Estimates ($ Millions)

Date Company Low High Best Est. Article Link Notes
9/30/2022 KCC 63,000.0 63,000.0 63,000.0 KCC Estimates Near $63B in Hurricane Ian Insured Losses (insurancejournal.com) Onshore; Excludes NFIP
10/3/2022 Verisk 42,000.0 57,000.0 49,500.0 Verisk: Up to $57B Insured Losses from Hurricane Ian (insurancejournal.com) Excludes NFIP
10/6/2022 CoreLogic 31,000.0 53,000.0 42,000.0 Insured Damages From Hurricane Ian $31-$53B: CoreLogic (insurancejournal.com) Includes NFIP; Excludes Demand Surge
10/7/2022 RMS 53,000.0 74,000.0 67,000.0 New and Revised Ian Loss Estimates, Images of Property Damage Published (carriermanagement.com) Excludes NFIP
10/7/2022 RMS NFIP Only 10,000.0 10,000.0 10,000.0 RMS Range of Insured Losses From Ian $53-$74B, ‘Best Estimate’ of $67B (insurancejournal.com) NFIP Only
9/29/2022 Fitch 25,000.0 40,000.0 32,500.0 Unrated Insurers at Risk From Ian; Reinsurers Impacted: Fitch (carriermanagement.com) NFIP Reinsurance Only
9/30/2022 S&P 30,000.0 40,000.0 35,000.0 Ian Insured Loss Estimates Rise: New High Over $60B (carriermanagement.com)
10/14/2022 Citizens CEO 30,000.0 67,000.0 48,500.0 Information provided via email Gilway: overall industry losses will be on the lower end of a $30-$67B
10/13/2022 Stonybrook Capital 75,000.0 75,000.0 75,000.0 Stonybrook Capital Says Hurricane Ian Is Largest-Ever Insured Loss Event at Over $75B (insurancejournal.com)
10/18/2022 Swiss Re 50,000.0 65,000.0 57,500.0 Swiss Re Expects Hurricane Ian Claims to Bring Q3 Loss (carriermanagement.com) Includes NFIP
10/17/2022 Fitch 35,000.0 55,000.0 45,000.0 This article
as of 10/17/2022 Average 46,555.6 62,111.1 54,722.2

Chart Notes: Straight Average used for best estimate where modeler only provided a range; Latest estimate used of overall average of all modelers where company revised or updated estimates

CM and IJ staff reports. Aon report summarized by Insurance Journal’s L.S. Howard