Expect 2015 to be another mild year in terms of hurricanes and tropical storms, according to Weather Services International’s new forecast for the season.
There will be nine named storms, five hurricanes and one major hurricane, WSI predicted.
For what that’s worth, the numbers are below both the 1950-2014 normal averages of 12/7/3, respectively, and the 1995-2014 active period normal averages of 15/8/3, WSI said.
Cool Atlantic sea temperatures and a new Pacific El Nino event will be behind what is predicted to be a relatively quiet tropical storm season, WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford said in prepared remarks.
“Aggregate Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures are as cool as they’ve been since 2009 and are at the second coolest levels in 20 years,” Crawford said. “Meanwhile, in the Pacific, a new El Nino event is emerging that will likely be stronger than last year’s weaker event. The cooler ocean temperatures and subsidence/shear associated with the El Nino event will likely be a deterrent for widespread tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic.
Crawford said that both dynamical models and WSI’s proprietary statistical models back up this assertion.
WSI, which is part of The Weather Company, offers weather data to industries including insurance, aviation, energy, media markets and federal/state government agencies.