As the insurance market continues to stabilize, the next phase of the market will reward independent agencies that can respond quickly as carriers regain confidence and begin competing for business again.

The Big “I” 2026 Market Share Report shows the independent agency channel continues to maintain control in commercial lines while it is also gaining ground in personal lines. At the same time, carrier profitability continues to improve. However, not all lines are profitable for underwriters.

Agencies that can respond quickly to changing carrier appetite will find opportunities to grow. Both agencies and carriers looking to grow in the changing landscape should keep an eye on three trends.

1. The independent agency is stable after a hard market

Many agencies have spent the last several years navigating a hard market. 2025 showed that the insurance industry has moved to a point of stabilization, and independent agencies entrenched their position within it.

The independent channel is slowly, steadily growing.

• Independent agents account for 62.1% of the market.
• Independents control 85-92% of the commercial market, depending on the line of business.

The top 10 lines of business have shown steady penetration over the past five years. Notably, the independent channel ticked up in personal lines:

• Personal auto grew from 33% to 34%
• Homeowners’ insurance grew from 50% to 51%

Overall, the market is stable and improving. With steady growth and a softening market in some geographies and lines of business, agencies can expect more competition. Agencies will need to find a competitive edge as the market improves and carriers write more business.

2. Carriers are finding underwriting flexibility

While agencies continue to grow premiums and hold market share in P&C lines, carriers are seeing a market that is friendlier to them. Most lines are becoming more profitable, suggesting insurers might be more willing to write more business or reenter markets that were unfavorable for them not long ago.

As a result of increasing profitability, carriers are in a stronger underwriting position. The overall combined ratio fell from 98% in 2022 to 88% in 2025. As admitted carriers regain profitability and underwriting capacity, fewer risks may need to be placed in the surplus lines market. Consistent with this shift, surplus lines growth also slowed in 2025. After increasing from a 9.0% share of the total U.S. property & casualty market and $91.8 billion in premium in 2023 to 9.7% and $101.3 billion in 2024, the market grew more modestly to a 9.9% share and $109.1 billion in premium in 2025.

When underwriting improves, carriers regain options. They can expand appetite, revisit markets they previously exited, compete more aggressively on desirable accounts, and selectively pursue growth. But better underwriting performance doesn’t immediately translate into increased appetite. Agencies that monitor and capitalize on these changes will gain an advantage as carriers gradually expand their underwriting appetite.

And carriers can strengthen agent experience by publishing up-to-date appetites and underwriting standards for their agency partners. Carriers can also utilize third party data to remain competitive, uncover profitable market opportunities, and sharpen pricing strategies.

3. The market has new fragmentation

The general trend in the market is showing premiums increasing with loss and combined ratios improving. But some lines are still difficult for carriers. Independent agencies need to monitor carrier appetite in the individual spaces they work in and be ready to adapt.

Despite elevated catastrophe losses in 2024 and 2025, fire, personal flood, and federal flood all posted improved loss and combined ratios while continuing to generate premium growth. This suggests that pricing, underwriting discipline, and portfolio management have offset much of the increased catastrophe exposure.

• Premium growth remained flat, and loss and combined ratios for private flood fell in 2024 and 2025.
• Federal flood lines also saw five-year lows in loss and combined ratios in 2025—27% and 59%, respectively—after major payouts in 2024.
• Private carriers might be willing to win business away from NFIP.

There’s also a small split in auto markets. Independent agents have continued to gain ground in private auto insurance, though commercial auto is the only commercial line where the independent channel has lost market share (though only dipping from a five-year average of 86% to 85% in 2025). Loss and combined ratios are improving but continue to miss breaking even for four years running. In 2025, the combined ratio for commercial auto was 101%.

The majority of lines are moving in the right direction, but several remain expensive for carriers to write:

• Total combined ratios are at a five-year low but remain at 88%.
• Commercial auto, international, medical malpractice, and private crop lines all have combined ratios above 100%.
• Multi-peril crop, other liability, other liability (occurrence), and products’ liability have combined ratios above 90%.

The market is trending in a more underwriter-friendly direction, but some lines are still unfavorable.

Execution and adaptability are more valuable

The report points to a market where improving underwriting performance and moderating surplus lines growth may create opportunities for carriers to expand appetite, compete more selectively, and strengthen agency relationships. As market conditions continue to evolve, carriers that can quickly adjust underwriting strategies, communicate appetite changes, and equip agency partners with current information will be better positioned to capture profitable growth.

Vertafore helps carriers respond faster to changing market conditions by strengthening agency connectivity, streamlining appetite management, and delivering the data-driven insights needed to identify and pursue profitable opportunities.

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