Despite a year-over-year decline in cargo theft in the first quarter of 2026, a first in five years, fraud schemes surged, according to a new report from in-transit supply chain risk management platform Overhaul.

The U.S. Q1-2026 Cargo Theft Report recorded 574 incidents across the U.S., an average of 6.4 per day.

Despite the reduced rate, fraud-based schemes grew, and new product categories emerged as targets, while thefts spread into regions that hadn’t been hotspots in the past.

While cargo theft typically slows in the first quarter as logistics activity dips after the holiday season, the report indicated the decline was smaller than expected.

Incidents fell by just 25% from Q4 2025, compared to a 34% drop during the same seasonal window a year earlier.

The gap suggests that while theft volume is easing, risk levels remain elevated, as significant increases were noted in the schemes thieves are using and the products targeted.

Deceptive pickup, where criminals use fake identities, forged credentials, and carrier impersonation to walk away with legitimate loads, rose 31% compared to Q1 2025, the report found, with nearly half occurring in California.

Methods of cargo theft included pilferage, theft of full truckload, facility theft, deceptive pickup, last-mile courier, and hijacking.

Among product categories, thefts of autos and parts saw the sharpest increase, jumping 142% from Q4 2025 and 51% year-over-year.

Electronics remained the most frequently targeted category overall, accounting for 17% of incidents, followed by food and drinks (15%), auto and parts (11%), and clothing and shoes (11%).

“The year-over-year decline is a positive signal, but the risk remains high, and what that risk looks like is changing,” said Barry Conlon, CEO and founder of Overhaul. “The growth in deceptive pickup schemes tells us that organized networks are investing in fraud infrastructure, and when criminals are forging identities and impersonating carriers, a padlock on a trailer isn’t going to stop them. That’s a threat you have to monitor, verify, and catch in real time.”

California (36%) and Texas (17%) remain the top two states for cargo theft, but theft is becoming more widespread. Illinois surged from 6% of national incidents in Q1 2025 to 13% in Q1 2026, with 45% of those thefts targeting electronics. Tennessee rose to 12%, up from 9% in Q1 2025.

Thursdays and Mondays tallied the most thefts during the week, and the hours of midnight to 6 AM continued to be the prime time for cargo thefts.

Though fraud declined nationwide, Memphis saw a 27% increase in theft incidents compared to the year before. Cargo theft is a growing risk in the country, driven by pilferage from unattended shipments during overnight and early morning hours, the report stated.

“Shippers often rely on national trends to assess their risk, but this quarter’s data shows why that doesn’t show the full picture,” said Ron Greene, EVP of Risk, Intelligence, and Response. “Our report is designed to surface the kind of intelligence that changes decisions. When shippers see that pilferage in a specific city peaks during overnight hours, or that electronics theft is concentrating in a new region, they can respond with smarter routing and more focused monitoring.”

Overhaul further recommends that shippers verify the authenticity of all shipment-related activity, as well as driver and business verifications. In addition, shippers should exercise “extreme diligence in vetting all carriers and drivers, particularly those operating out of the Southern California and/or those handling highly targeted products such as electronics.”

The company also recommends the use of tracking technology.