Insured losses from February’s windstorms Dudley and Eunice will likely fall between $3.4 and $5.1 billion (3.0 and 4.5 billion euro), with Germany accounting for around 40 percent of the total loss, according to risk modeling firm RMS.

Another 20 percent of the loss will likely be in the Netherlands and about 15 percent in the United Kingdom.

The storms, also known as Ylenia and Zeynep, also hit Ireland, France, Belgium, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia from Feb. 16-19, 2022.

The RMS analysis suggests that Eunice is expected to contribute between $2.8 and $4.0 billion (2.5 and 3.5 billion euro) to the overall insured loss total. This estimate would rank Eunice as the most damaging European windstorm event since Kyrill in 2007.

These wind-only loss estimates are based on hazard reconstructions and include damage to property, automobiles, agriculture and direct business interruption but exclude losses from damage to infrastructure as well as losses caused by storm surge and inland flooding that are expected not to be material.

The loss estimates consider unique aspects of these events, including market dynamics and economic effects from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which will likely act to increase losses beyond typical expectations. This includes losses to large facilities, such as power plants and stadiums, and uncertainty in replacement costs, driven by material prices and shortages.

The estimates also consider a marginal amount of post-event loss amplification and the possibility of “claims leakage,” the payment for damage from other events under a single occurrence, given that several events occurred in close succession. This includes Storm Franklin, which impacted Europe to a smaller degree between Feb. 20-22, 2022, but its damage may be reimbursed under Dudley or Eunice claims.

The RMS estimates track with those of another modeling firm, Verisk Extreme Event Solutions (formerly AIR Worldwide), which predicted losses of $2.2-$5.6 billion (3-5 billion euro) with the majority expected in Germany, UK, and the Netherlands,

“Although the last two decades have mostly spared us from history-making windstorms like Daria (1990) or Lothar (1999), windstorms Dudley and Eunice remind us how destructive these events can be and highlight the importance of storm clustering, the close succession of multiple storms following similar trajectories, in Europe,” said Michèle Lai, senior product manager for Europe Climate Models at RMS.