Strong El Nino, Warmer Sea Impacts Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts

Two new hurricane predictions forecast widely different storm totals for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

According to Colorado State University’s research team in the Department of Atmospheric Science, the forecast for this year’s hurricane activity predicts 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.

In its 43rd year of hurricane predictions, CSU says the season is likely to be below average.

“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report.

CSU’s prediction also indicates the probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2026, with 32% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%), 15% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%), and 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas(average from 1880–2020 is 27%).

Their April prediction comes with the caveat that it is “historically less accurate compared to those that follow in each season due to the considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere and ocean between April and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October.”

Arizona State University’s College of Science Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences Department, on the other hand, predicts nine hurricanes, four major hurricanes, and 20 named storms.

The long-term seasonal average, according to CSU’s hurricane forecast, is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Both universities agree that a strong El Niño and higher-than-average sea surface temperatures will impact storm formation.

Moderate to strong El Niño events generally have a stronger tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear impact, and a warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water, according to CSU researchers.

While both utilize data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), each differs on their modeling approach, using variations of statistical calculations and machine learning.

In January, Tropical Storm Risk issued its first prediction for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, with three intense and seven total hurricanes expected, and fourteen named storms, mirroring the seasonal average.

The names that will be used for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season storms are as follows: