The temperature outlook favors well above average temperatures across almost the entire Lower 48, except in parts of the southern and central Great Plains, according to the June 2025 Weather Outlook by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The greatest odds (50-60 percent) for above-normal temperatures are found in the northern and central Rockies and the Northeast, according to Mike Halpert, deputy director of the CPC.

Drought improvement and even complete recovery occurred along the East Coast and in parts of the Northern and Southern Plains this spring, while drought conditions are expected to continue in the West and Central Plains, with California and Arizona seeing an increase in dry conditions.

Precipitation is expected to be well above average in most of the southern US, with well below average rainfall most likely in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Plains.

There are increased odds for above-normal rainfall across much of the southern United States, from the Southwest eastward across the Southern and Central Plains to most of the Southeast, according to the weather service’s forecast.

The best odds are found over Arizona (60-70 percent), where unusual June rainfall during the first week of the month is expected to result in totals exceeding the threshold for above-average monthly rain. (The rainy season of the North American Monsoon usually reaches the Southwest in July.)

Probabilities for a wetter-than-average June also exceed 60 percent over Oklahoma.