Estimates of industry losses for recent hurricanes and the earthquake in Mexico are still being tallied by catastrophe modeling firms.

Among the latest are these from RMS and AIR Worldwide.

Hurricane Maria

On Monday, AIR estimated that industry insured losses from Hurricane Maria in the Caribbean will be between $40 billion and $85 billion, with 85 percent of the loss coming from Puerto Rico.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates also include insured physical damage to onshore property (residential, commercial, and industrial) and autos due to wind and precipitation-induced flooding; insured loss to contents; losses due to business interruption; losses to industrial facilities; and additional living expenses for residential claims. They also include “demand surge,” which is the increase in the cost of labor and materials that is often observed in the aftermath of major catastrophes.

• Mexico Quake, Sept. 19:

On Saturday, RMS published estimates for the Sept. 19, 2017 earthquake in Mexico. Referring to the event as the Puebla earthquake, RMS said its preliminary estimates of economic shake losses are between $4 billion and $8 billion, basing the figures on current building damage information from the Mexican authorities, and RMS analysis of data on ground motion, and an examination of how property exposures are distributed across the region.

Insured losses are not expected to exceed $1.2 billion, RMS said, noting low insurance penetration rates across Mexico, particularly in residential lines.

The RMS estimate accounts for shake-only insured losses to structures, contents and business interruption including the effects of liquefaction and landsliding. Post-event loss amplification is not expected to be a significant factor in these losses.

AIR released its range of estimates for the industry insured losses for Sept. 19 event a day earlier (on Sept. 22), with figures extending from roughly $730 million to $2 billion (MXN 13.0 billion to MXN 36.7 billion) for the M7.1 earthquake that struck central Mexico.

Like RMS, AIR’s loss estimates explicitly capture damage from ground shaking. AIR also said its estimates of insured losses are based on assumptions about take-up rates in Mexico (the percentage of properties actually insured against the earthquake peril), about which there is considerable uncertainty.

AIR did not provide estimates of total economic losses, advising only that they are expected to be much higher than industry insured loss estimates.

• Mexico Quake, Sept. 7:

On Sept. 19, AIR Worldwide published a range of estimates for an earlier event, the M8.1 earthquake that struck off the coast of the Mexican state of Chiapas on Sept.7. Insured losses there could be between $787 million and $1.1 billion (MXN 14 billion and MXN 20 billion), AIR said.

• Mexico Quake, Sept. 23:

Neither firm has estimated losses related to a third Mexico earthquake, the M6.1 earthquake struck the state of Oaxaca, Mexico, about 18.6 km (11.6) miles south-southeast of the town of Matías Romero on Sept. 23. AIR notes that while aftershock determination is rather difficult, the proximity of this quake to the Sept. 7 event strongly suggests that it is an aftershock.

Sources: RMS, AIR Worldwide