There is a 60% chance of a shift in the climate phenomenon known as La Niña towards El Niño in February-April 2026, with the pattern known as ENSO-neutral likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

“Atmospheric anomalies weakened due to sub-seasonal variability, but still reflected aspects of La Niña,” the U.S. weather forecaster said. “Low-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the western equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across the east-central equatorial Pacific.”

La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Niña results in cooler sea surface temperatures, increasing the likelihood of floods and droughts, which can affect crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures remain at the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

“There are signs that La Niña is weakening, and neutral ENSO conditions should return in the next couple of months,” said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather, adding that a transition to El Niño conditions could begin in late spring.

“Drought conditions have started to appear in parts of southeast Australia, and a transition to El Niño could lead to worsening drought conditions and issues for the next growing season,” Nicholls added.

Record heat and wildfires swept through the Southern Hemisphere at the start of 2026, with scientists predicting that even more extreme temperatures could lie ahead.

“With the transition out of La Niña, this should equate to more rain in Argentina and less rain in north-central Brazil. Also, less rain is likely in Southeast Asia as we go into summer if La Nina fades,” said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather.

Climate change combined with cyclical La Niña weather patterns led to catastrophic flooding across southern Africa in late December and early January, killing around 200 people and affecting hundreds of thousands of others.

There is a 60% chance of El Niño occurring in the summer, Japan’s weather bureau said on Tuesday, with a 50% likelihood of it occurring in the spring and a 50% chance of normal conditions continuing.

(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru. Editing by Jane Merriman)