By the year 2100, up to $77 billion of property in San Francisco will be at risk from sea-level rise, according to an analysis from global catastrophe risk management firm RMS.
The analysis found that $55 billion of private and public sector property in the low-lying coastal areas around San Francisco would be flooded by the end of the century, assuming that no measures are put in place to increase the city’s resilience. The calculation reflects present-day costs to rebuild the damaged buildings and infrastructure, rather than the market values 84 years from now, RMS said in a statement.
The analysis is based on the National Research Council’s upper-end projection of a 66-inch sea-level rise by the year 2100. RMS also calculated loss estimates for a 1-in-100-year extreme storm surge temporarily pushing sea levels to 108 inches, which would leave an additional $22 billion of property assets at risk.
RMS is convening an international workshop at its Exceedance conference this week to help public sector leaders understand the application of resilience analytics. The workshop will explore the value of catastrophe modeling tools to help governments plan for risks such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, pandemics, wildfire, drought, terrorism and cyber attacks, as well as how to finance those strategies, RMS said.