While individual storms could make landfall and wreak havoc, The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be a relatively quiet one overall, Guy Carpenter said.
The risk and reinsurance specialist predicted that hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin will be below average for the whole seasons.
Broken down, expectations are that tropical activity for the North Atlantic Basin will fall below long-term averages of 1955-2014. In the tropical part of the Atlantic between Africa and the Gulf of Mexico, the ongoing El Niño situation and resulting cool sea-surface temperatures reflect other elements of reduced storm activity.
At the same time, Guy Carpenter cautioned that a catastrophic hurricane could sill make landfall, as it did during otherwise moderate El Niño years such as the 1965 season. During that period, only four Atlantic Basin hurricanes materialized, but one became Hurricane Betsy, a Category 4 storm that made land in the U.S. on the northern Gulf. Significant damage and economic losses followed.
“Seasonal activity predictions are valuable, but regardless of whether a particular season is expected to be quiet or active, historical experience reminds us that the impact of even a single tropical storm or hurricane landfall can be severe,” David Lightfoot, head of GC Analytics – Americas, said in prepared remarks.
One warning sign: above normal sea-surface temperatures in an area near Florida including the Bahamas and northern Caribbean. Guy Carpenter said that this area will need closer monitoring in the weeks ahead as far as potential storm eruptions.
Guy Carpenter is a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies.
Source: Guy Carpenter