As far as hurricane season goes, the worst is yet to come, SNL Financial concluded in a recent report. Simply put, while the season officially began on June 1, the worst hurricanes often don’t make landfall until September, so there’s some relative calm before the real trouble hits, SNL said.
SNL bases its analysis on hurricanes that made landfall from 1900 to 2013. That raw data comes from The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and SNL said the information shows September is not only the worst month for hurricanes, but the ones that hit during that period are typically the most intense.
All of that said, SNL noted that many, including the NOAA, expect a relatively subdued 2014 hurricane season. The NOAA predicts eight to 13 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to two major hurricanes during the Atlantic season, SNL recapped.
But just one storm can cause a whole lot of trouble, SNL added.
Lest we forget, SNL pointed out that a number of publicly traded reinsurers experienced cat losses in the 2004 fourth quarter, including Aspen Insurance Holdings, Platinum Underwriters Holdings and Renaissance Re, due, in part, to hurricane related trouble that pummeled Florida and other nearby locales. During that period, large insurers such as Allstate Corp. and American International Group also took in massive losses because of hurricane troubles late in the season.
In other words, whether or not 2014 turns out to be a subdued hurricane season, SNL warned insurers to brace themselves and prepare for the worst whenever a hurricane hits later this year, however infrequently they occur.