This summer, AIR Worldwide will release what it says is the property/casualty insurance industry’s most detailed, physically based, probabilistic riverine flood model for the United States, answering the risk-pricing and management needs of both the insurance industry and government for more detailed flood modeling.

Executive Summary

In the United States, risk from inland floods is not simply related to proximity to a river. There is also a substantial amount of off-floodplain risk, away from the river. Here, AIR Worldwide EVP Dr. Jayanta Guin explains how his firm's soon-to-be-released model expands beyond this binary on-floodplain vs. off-floodplain view of risk, opening up opportunities for carriers to better understand the risk and participate in a private flood insurance market.

Below, Dr. Jayanta Guin, who was appointed executive vice president of AIR Worldwide in April, answers questions about the model—the third one that AIR Worldwide has developed, following earlier inland flood models for Germany and Great Britain.

Guin, who has 15 years of experience in probabilistic risk analysis for natural catastrophes worldwide, also talks about the difficulties involved with modeling and managing flood risk generally.

Q: What are some of the challenges in managing flood risk?

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