Nearly halfway through the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA’s prediction of below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin remains unchanged.

Today, forecasters from NOAA’s National Weather Service updated the number of expected named storms to 7-13 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 2-6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 0-2 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

The ranges cover the entire season from June 1 through November 30 and include the two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, that have already formed.

NOAA forecasters predict a 75% chance of below-normal activity, with a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5% chance of above-normal activity. This updated prediction is similar to the initial outlook issued in May.

In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will find 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, as Arthur demonstrated,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That’s why it’s important to prepare for every storm that’s projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength.”

El Niño increases wind shear, which tends to prevent tropical storms from forming or from strengthening once formed.

“When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Niño continues to get stronger every month,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Compared to a mature El Niño, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.”

Though El Niño tends to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, it can enhance storm development in the Pacific, NOAA researchers said. Its outlook for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season remains unchanged with 15-22 named storms, which is above average.

So far, there have been seven named storms, of which two became hurricanes, including one major hurricane.