University of Pennsylvania Energy and Environmental Science (EES) scientists predict an average Atlantic hurricane season with 14 named storms.

Dr. Michael E. Mann, Shannon A. Christiansen, and Penn State ESSC alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar released their seasonal prediction for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season on April 23.

The season officially starts on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

The prediction, based on Kozar’s statistical model and built on past work by Sabbatelli and Mann, is for 13.9 +/- 3.7 total named tropical cyclones, corresponding to a range of 10-18 storms.

Persistent higher-than-average sea surface temperature and the presence of neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions are two factors impacting this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.

If mild La Nina conditions take shape later in 2025, it will result in a slightly higher prediction: 15.1 +/- 3.9 storms (range of 11-19 storms, with a best guess of 15), according to the researchers.