Insured losses from Hurricane Michael now look to be between $6.8 billion and $10 billion, according to a new estimate from catastrophe modeler RMS.

That estimate covers insured losses relating to wind and storm surge damage across Florida, Georgia and other parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) ranging from $250 million to $750 million, RMS said.

Loss estimates include property damage and business interruption across residential, commercial, industrial and automobile lines of business. It also factors in post-loss amplification and accounts for nonmodeled losses. According to RMS, most of the insured losses will affect residential lines.

Unlike recent events such as Hurricanes Harvey and Florence where rain-related inland flooding was the main driver of loss, RMS said most insured losses from Michael will come from wind and storm surge. Economic losses for the U.S. and affected states are estimated to be between $8.5 and $14 billion. The economic loss estimate does not include items such as roads and utilities or government-owned property, which is typically self-insured or uninsured.

To arrive at this estimate of loss, RMS simulated wind and storm surge impacts using the North Atlantic Hurricane Model, plus ensemble footprints, which are hazard reconstructions of Michael’s wind and surge fields informed by observational datasets.

Source: RMS