A newly released study finds that though improved hurricane forecast graphics may help people identify threatened areas, it is unlikely to make them more likely to recognize the danger or take protective action.

Florida State University researchers also found that a widespread misunderstanding of the hurricane cone persists, highlighting a potentially dangerous gap between accurate forecasts and public preparedness.

Researchers evaluated an experimental graphic that expands the traditional hurricane forecast cone to include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas. The familiar cone has historically placed greater emphasis on coastal regions, even though dangerous storm conditions can extend far from the shoreline.

The findings revealed mixed results.

Although the revised graphic helped people without specialized weather knowledge recognize inland areas under hurricane or tropical storm watches, it did not significantly influence how dangerous they believed the storms would be or whether they intended to take protective measures. Participants also showed no improvement in identifying areas covered by storm warnings.

The updated format was developed by the NHC in 2024, and the findings were published in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society.

“The National Hurricane Center has made a number of thoughtful changes to improve how hurricane information is communicated,” said Assistant Professor Elizabeth Ray, the study’s lead author. “We had a simple question. Do those changes actually help people understand what the graphic is telling them about the risk they face?”

The research team surveyed residents of Florida and Georgia to investigate how the public interprets hurricane forecasts.

Participants were shown either the conventional hurricane cone graphic or the newer experimental version that includes additional information about inland storm threats.

People who saw the revised map were more successful at identifying locations under hurricane or tropical storm watches. However, that improvement in recognizing watch areas did not lead to greater concern about the potential danger or stronger intentions to take safety precautions.

The results also highlighted a persistent misunderstanding surrounding the familiar hurricane “cone of uncertainty.” Many people incorrectly interpret the width of the cone as an indication of a storm’s physical size, rather than understanding what the graphic is intended to communicate about the uncertainty in its projected track.

“For years, research has shown that people often mistake a wider cone for a bigger storm,” Ray said. “Our findings suggest that even with an updated graphic, that misconception can be hard to shake.”

The results underscore the difficulty of presenting complex meteorological information in a way that people can readily interpret and use when making safety decisions, indicating that adding useful information to a forecast does not automatically make people more aware of their personal risk or more likely to respond appropriately.

The researchers recommend using hurricane forecast graphics alongside local weather predictions and detailed information about possible impacts. Understanding the specific threats to an area, as well as the protective steps residents should consider, can provide a more useful basis for making decisions.

“Our findings are a reminder that one graphic can only tell you part of the story,” Ray said. “Don’t rely on the cone alone. Pair it with clear, local information about what impacts to expect and what actions to take. That gives you a fuller picture of what the storm could mean where you live and what to do next.”

The study received funding through an internal Florida State University SEED grant. The research was also informed by discussions with the NHC, which supplied the experimental forecast graphics evaluated by the team.

Bradford Johnson, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography, contributed as a co-author.

Florida State University. (2026, October 20). Hurricane warning maps are improving, but a dangerous problem remains. ScienceDaily. Retrieved November 3, 2026 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/10/261019093443.htm