An early forecast of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) suggests it will be an intensely active season with “activity about 30 percent above the 1991-2020 30-year norm and around 50 percent above the long-term 1950-2023 norm.”

The authors of the Extended Range Forecast, Dr. Adam Lea and Nick Wood of EutoTempest Ltd, London, UK, indicate the full outlook is still uncertain.

The forecast spans from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1 and runs through to the end of November 2024.

Warmer sea surface temperatures are expected to enhance hurricane activity, the authors stated.

Because of uncertainty centering on the Caribbean trade winds, the forecast is susceptible to change.

The statistical seasonal hurricane forecast model used by TSR divides the North Atlantic into three regions and uses separate forecast models for each “before summing the regional hurricane forecasts to obtain an overall forecast.”

According to the National Hurricane Center, the following names have been designated for the Atlantic Hurricane Season:

• Alberto
• Beryl
• Chris
• Debby
• Ernesto
• Francine
• Gordon
• Helene
• Isaac
• Joyce
• Kirk
• Leslie
• Milton
• Nadine
• Oscar
• Patty
• Rafael
• Sara
• Tony
• Valerie
• William

The above list is one of six used and recycled every six years by the World Meteorological Organization.

Names of especially severe and deadly storms are retired.