A period of heightened risk lies ahead
The risk of major shocks to the global economy is increasing. Over the next three years, we estimate that that risk will be significantly elevated over its long-term baseline. The baseline itself – a ten-year projection – is trending upwards.
Our Global Risk Index of GDP@ Risk for 300 of the world’s leading cities as well as the probability-weighted expected losses from 22 different types of shocks is estimated to be 1.48% of annual global domestic production (GDP).
Between 2017-19, the Index is estimated to be elevated above the ten-year baseline at around 1.51% of annual GDP. With nominal GDP for 2017 forecast expected to reach around $77.7 trillion, the Global Risk Index of 1.51% means an expected loss of $1.17 trillion.