Social Inflation Hits Insurers, Not Economies

June 6, 2023 by William Wilt and Alan Zimmermann

You know things are bad when the term “nuclear” is deemed inadequate to describe the rise in legal verdicts against corporations.

Executive Summary

P/C insurance professionals may think tort reform is coming as "nuclear" verdicts grow to "thermonuclear" status. But analysts at Assured Research are doubtful. Here, Assured Research President William Wilt and Managing Director Alan Zimmermann look for signs of economic disruption in states tagged as having the worst legal environments—a likely precursor for action on tort reform. They find little evidence that social inflation disrupts local economies. Instead, it is insurers in these states that feel the impact, they reveal through an analysis of loss ratios in states with the best and worst legal environments.

A version of this article was originally published in the May Assured Briefing for subscribers to Assured Research reports. The article is being republished by Carrier Management with permission from the authors.

Executive Summary P/C insurance professionals may think tort reform is coming as “nuclear” verdicts grow to “thermonuclear” status. But analysts at Assured Research are doubtful. Here, Assured Research President William Wilt and Managing Director Alan Zimmermann look for signs of economic disruption in states tagged as having the worst legal environments—a likely precursor for action on tort reform. They find little evidence that social inflation disrupts local economies. Instead, it is insurers in these states that feel the impact, they reveal through an analysis of loss ratios in states with the best and worst legal environments.

A version of this article was originally published in the May Assured Briefing for subscribers to Assured Research reports. The article is being republished by Carrier Management with permission from the authors.

“Thermonuclear” is the new term coined by the public relations and communications firm Marathon Strategies, which recently released a report on the topic of social inflation and thermonuclear verdicts. For the record, the consultancy examined nearly 900 nuclear legal verdicts against corporations (awards exceeding $10 million) from 2009-2022 and was motivated, we suspect, to add the “thermo” prefix when the researchers noticed that 191 of those verdicts were greater than $100 million (with 23 greater than $1 billion).