Canadian Earthquake Cat Modeling Gets an AIR Worldwide Revamp

AIR Worldwide revamped its earthquake model for Canada, with updates covering seismicity, paleoseismic and active fault data, among other areas.

Simply put, the Massachusetts-based catastrophe risk modeling operation said that the total model for Canada has been rebuilt from the ground up.

AIR, a part of the Verisk Insurance Solutions division at Verisk Analytics, said its Canadian version is meant to be more consistent with its U.S. counterpart to allow for better quantification of risk involving policies and coverage that crosses both borders, AIR said.

AIR’s new Canadian earthquake catastrophe model also accomplishes an apparent industry first. Jayanta Guin, executive vice president of research and modeling for AIR Worldwide, said in a statement that the new Canada model is the first in the industry to include “fully probabilistic landslide and tsunami models for Canada.”

Here’s a roundup of the changes and enhancements:

• Extensive re-engineering, in collaboration with academia, to include an up-to-date view of seismicity based on the Geological Survey of Canada’s latest hazard information.
• The addition of paleoseismic and active fault data in western Canada.
• A new, comprehensive kinematic model that uses GPS and other geodetic data to figure out the buildup of seismic energy in the shallow crust of British Columbia and the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
• The capacity to estimate recurrence rates for rare, large-magnitude earthquakes and source areas for earthquakes that can produce tsunamis.
• State-of-the-art ground motion prediction equations.
• Geotechnical and microzonation studies of metropolitan areas including Ottawa, Montreal, Victoria and Vancouver.
• Updates to the vulnerability mode, with regional building practices and evolving building codes taken into account.
• The addition of damage functions for industrial facilities and infrastructure.

As well, the industry exposure database is updated with risk counts, adjusted construction costs and construction types, occupancy types and policy terms, AIR said.

Source: AIR Worldwide